This was a year of conflicting feelings.
Living two blocks from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, I witnessed first-hand the escalating discontent that characterized 2020. I remember the loud helicopters hovering over our zip code until late, drowning out the quiet brotherhood between neighbors and friends. Hearing too many ambulances and stories of lay-offs. You help where you can, but you mostly feel like you’re holding a glass of water when the whole world is on fire.
Games provided a welcome escape.
The snarky humor of Hades helped get through the dark times. I also very much enjoyed watching @tha_rami fly crisscross around the world in Microsoft Flight Simulator. The 7-year old and I successfully misdirected legions of others in Among Us. Suckers. And I got forked by Netflix’ The Queen’s Gambit which made me remember how much I loved to play chess.
So that’s a thing now, too.
The industry at large had a boon year. Changes that had been in progress slowly started to accelerate and video games became a beacon in a volatile economy. All three console makers excelled in their own right: Nintendo blew past expectations, Sony delivered some of the best content available, and Microsoft future-proofed itself with a novel business model.
We also saw the beginning of what the future holds. Big Tech is coming. The future is user-generated. And the Metaverse is now a buzzword.
As a matter of routine I end the year usually with the Four R’s:
Reading
Running
Red wine
Writing (I know that last one doesn’t start with an ‘r’. Whatever. I’m a published author. Come at me.)
It’s a potent mix that offers a chance to reflect and get ready for what’s next. To help with the reading, here are the 2020 SuperJoost Playlist greatest hits and how they fared this year:
Epic versus the mobile industrial complex. The new platform economics in gaming (and everywhere else) sit at the center of a broader debate on anti-competitive practices. Yes #freefortnite swag box goes a bit far. But @TimSweeneyEpic is on the right path.
The future is user-generated. Roblox delayed its IPO because it figured out it’s worth more. Paying your players is counterintuitive for conventional media firms and their investors. Which is precisely why it’s what’s coming next.
Big Tech sucks at gaming. I have yet to see something that changes my mind on this. I remain skeptical around cloud gaming efforts by Amazon and Google because (1) neither of them has a healthy track record with content industries (I mean, pick one) and (2) the deluge of cheap capital isn’t helping.
Quibi's collapse: an exercise in humility. A few people felt I was too harsh in my criticism of conventional media and its tendency to dictate what’s interesting. And I still disagree. Let Moses stay on the mountain.
Amazon's celestial arcade. The Bezos Video Game Emporium is coming. But to deliver it needs to step up the effort.
Riot Games starts second act with Valorent. After its success with LoL, Riot has proved critics wrong by dropping a hot new shooter. But can it reorganize itself to facilitate multiple successes?
Lastly, I’m grateful this year for all my industry colleagues and friends who helped me breathe in the post-SuperData vacuum. Thank you for your friendship, your insight, and your advice. Can’t wait to see all of you again soon.
Here’s to a happy and HEALTHY 2021!
NEWS
Google Stadia on iOS: Review
There’s now a non-app browser-based workaround available that allows you to play Stadia on iPhones.
My four-word review: I like it, but.
Previously I’ve described how this iteration of cloud gaming offers a much-needed solution for the problem of wanting to play anywhere in the house so I can find some privacy, and it just got better.
Different from Amazon Luna, the mobile experience for Google Stadia involves a lot fewer steps to get up and running. But it is early days. And we’ve only seen Amazon’s first version. I plan to take the lot on the road this week for the holidays (yes, I got tested) to see how they both perform in the wild.
Nevertheless, playing a full triple A production on your teeny tiny screen still feels awkward. I have one of the biggest phones available, the iPhone XS Max. It manages to deliver a smooth experience but for some reason I can’t figure out the optimal distance between my screen and eyeballs. Also, there’s the discomfort of either having to prop up your phone or slowly dislocating your wrists by holding a controller with the phone attached to it with one of those grabby doohickies.
That makes sense of course because RDR2 and DOOM Eternal were developed for PC/console play. Even the Ubisoft Plus offering, which allows you to pick up where you left off regardless of device(!), still leaves me squinting. What mobile-based cloud gaming needs more than anything is dedicated software.
Does it scratch an itch? Yes.
Is this iteration of cloud gaming going to revolutionize the industry? No.
I don’t see how playing in this configuration is going to grow the pie or increase spending on $60 titles. The reliance on a dedicated controller makes it decidedly smartphone unfriendly. And that, of course, is the Great Promise of Cloud Gaming: that these device-agnostic services will add millions of new consumers to the overall market. As these services continue to roll out in 2021 I expect them to shift their focus to more exclusive and cloud-first content.
CD Project Red worried about share price
How else to read this statement:
“The Management Board has decided to disclose the above information in the form of a current report due to its potential impact on investment-related decisions.”
By issuing an opaque statement on the number of total units sold-through (meaning, bought by consumers, not just shipped to retailers), and accounting for refunds up to December 20th (which, I fear, may be on purpose), CDPR is showcasing its priorities.
I’ve already ranted about this enough. But I am particularly proud of this quote which I blame entirely on the fact that I was on my way to the dentist when the WSJ called.
As we move into a world in which players become creators this robber baron rhetoric is going to only make this type of behavior seem vile and old-fashioned. Nevertheless Wall Street largely maintains its ‘Hold’ on the stock. But lead analysts have started to roll back their expectations for units sold by 25% from ~34 million to 26 million by the end of next year.
“...history suggests most video games never fully recover from a tough start.”
Money, Money, Numbers
Discord raised another $100 million in funding at a valuation of $7bn. Relatedly, my life is increasingly taking place on Discord servers.
Stillfront acquired Super Free Games ($150 million) and Sandbox Interactive (€130 million)
SteelSeries acquired KontrolFreek.
Roblox acquired Loom.ai to build more realistic avatars.
Rumor has it that Rovio is up for sale, even now that its share price is at a three-month high following the announcement of a new CEO.
Tencent acquired Leyou for $1.5 billion. The Chinese titan gains ownership over a bunch of high-profile outfits, including Splash Damage and Digital Extremes. The latter makes Warframe but says the deal won’t impact its plans.
Play/Pass
During the holidays, there is only play. No pass.
Play. This interview in the New Yorker with Shigeru Miyamoto.
Play. Among Us comes to Nintendo Switch.
Play. KFC released a console that keeps your chicken warm. We’ve peaked as a society.