Grand Flex Auto
In delaying GTA6, Rockstar did what few companies can afford to do
The SuperJoost Playlist is a weekly take on gaming, tech, and entertainment by business professor and author Joost van Dreunen.
Millions of fans around the world collectively forgave Rockstar Studios following the release of the second trailer for its hotly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6.
Last Friday, the studio announced a six-month delay, pushing the game to May 2026. It disappointed both shareholders and gamers alike, as publisher Take-Two Interactive’s shares dropped 8% on Friday morning following the news. The second trailer’s release, however, isn’t aimed at earning back Wall Street’s favor, but rather to cool the fever among its fans.
For reference, I started writing the following about two hours after the second trailer dropped and recorded 10,548,151 views on Rockstar’s official YouTube channel.
The Street’s knee-jerk reaction is understandable—but if you know Rockstar’s playbook, also entirely predictable.
First, investors have precedent for trusting the long game, as, for instance, the delays for Grand Theft Auto 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 were followed by record-breaking launches. More specifically, both titles were delayed twice, “with the first delay being to the second quarter of the next year, followed by a second delay to the third quarter of that same year,” according to IGN.
Following that same logic, I predict that GTA6 is now likely to release in 2026 in September or October, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. [FWIW, I questioned TTWO’s ability to deliver on time in 2023, because assuming a 2025 launch window is optimistic given the publisher’s propensity for delays.]
Second, its absence from the upcoming holiday schedule gives room for publishers to breathe. Several had postponed their titles, assuming that GTA6 would suck the air out of the market anyway, leaving little room for other titles to deliver on their promise.
It lets the rest of the industry breathe and gives other titles a shot at center stage. Despite spending on games having declined, consumers continue to show growing activity across different platforms. In the first quarter of this year, Roblox had 98 million daily active users (see below), Monopoly Go! reported earning $5 billion over its lifetime, and Steam counted a new record of 41.2 million concurrent players in February.
Understandably, fans have no interest in waiting longer.
Now, 12 years since the release of GTA5 in 2013, they’re eager for the next installment. Rockstar has pushed them to a frenzy by releasing maddeningly little information, offering only a single trailer in late 2023, which has since been watched 252,611,998 times. After a rally of its legacy titles across console and PC, the monthly activity has started to subside more recently, reaching below 100,000 concurrents for the first time in six years.
Meanwhile, viewership on Twitch was down -6 percent in 2025Q1 compared to last quarter, according to Stream Hatchet, totaling 453 million hours watched across all live-streaming platforms. It suggests that even the almighty GTA5 is starting to show its age as audiences begin to cycle out.
This information vacuum is remarkable. Even the most senior people at Rockstar and Take-Two usually know nothing, which further adds to the mystique. As publishers shift toward community-led transparency, Rockstar is doubling down on its ability to create secrecy.
As for the second trailer, it gives a better sense of the overall storyline, gameplay, and characters. Different from the choice offered in its predecessor between three different male characters, GTA6 centers on a couple, which I expect means you get to play a broader variety of mission types. And coincidentally, it also seems that the Hot Coffee scandal from San Andreas has been reconstituted for regular gameplay.
It’s a consolation trailer to some degree to help offset the disappointment. But it also cleverly reignites excitement in a way that only Rockstar can. It’s the ultimate flex, in a sense.
Where Ubisoft was desperately polishing Assassin’s Creed: Shadows to save itself, Take-Two has decided to take its sweet time because, well, it can. It won’t suffer any financial consequences because it is almost guaranteed to be successful. It will handily make back the extra capital it will spend over the next year “polishing” the game. More so, Take-Two historically front-loads its development costs rather than continuing development on a rolling basis. At launch, it’ll likely have several years of content and a clear editorial calendar for expansions and updates ready to go.
It all testifies to a high degree of confidence in what’s to come. Judging by the 19,797,057 YouTube views for the second trailer, you, too, would feel optimistic.
It’s a classic Play Pendulum moment: while most publishers are trapped in the churn of indistinguishable sequels, Rockstar is optimizing for leverage—timing its release to dominate pricing, distribution, and attention all at once.
If you knew you were going to be successful, how would you go about it? I’d take my sweet time is how.
MONEY, MONEY, NUMBERS
Roblox delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance, surpassing guidance across all key metrics with revenue reaching $1.03 billion (29% YoY growth) and bookings of $1.21 billion (31% YoY growth). The platform demonstrated robust user engagement metrics with 97.8 million daily active users (26% YoY increase) and 21.7 billion hours engaged (30% YoY growth).
Despite reporting a $216.3 million consolidated net loss, Roblox achieved record cash flow performance with $443.9 million from operations (86% YoY growth) and free cash flow of $426.5 million (123% YoY growth). Management attributes this growth acceleration to strategic investments in platform monetization, virtual economy enhancements, and improved search and discovery capabilities, while simultaneously delivering margin improvements through operating efficiencies in infrastructure and headcount costs.
Roblox has been investing in novel revenue models, including advertising through a recent deal with Google, facilitating rewarded video ads, and an expansion of its UGC program. Notably, creator earnings reached a record $281.6 million, with over 100 developers earning more than $1 million in the past year. Its top 100 creators earned $6.7 million on average in the last 12 months (up 35% YoY). For its top 10 creators, that number was $36 million on average (up 28% YoY).
PLAY/PASS
Play. Dream Games, maker of Royal Match, announced a strategic investment from CVC, valuing the firm at $5 billion. (Disclosure: I’m an advisor to Makers Fund, which is an investor.)
Pass. Electronic Arts laid off 300 devs and cancelled its Titanfall franchise.
UP NEXT
Both Microsoft and Sony have now increased the price of their hardware, which speaks to both a bifurcation of the consumer market and the future of dedicated hardware. I’ll have a few thoughts on that soon.