Keighley's kingdom
The novel business model behind The Game Awards and its future
I bet you’re busy trying to get those last few things done before starting a well-deserved break. It looks like 2025 will be a rollercoaster, so get your rest while you can. Until then, thanks to all of you 13,000 for the support this year.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS! 🎄❤️
On to this week’s update.
BIG READ: Keighley's kingdom
[This analysis has been updated. Changes are indicated in bold.]
The video games industry's most intriguing aspect isn't its scale, but rather its capacity to reimagine traditional business models.
A decade since its conception, watching the 2024 edition of The Game Awards is both a celebration and cringe-fest. For most of its history, the video game industry lacked a grand spectacle comparable to Hollywood's Oscars or the music industry's Grammys—a self-congratulatory, red-carpet affair that defines cultural legitimacy. The absence of such aggrandizing events has left a celebrity deficit. Or, as one Rockstar Games producer told my class a few years ago: “There is no red carpet event for the person who makes the helicopter fly realistically, despite it being an incredible accomplishment.”
That void made the early days of The Game Awards awkwardly charming and uniquely authentic. Video game development is, after all, a world-building exercise. Unlike the cardboard affronts found in film, interactive entertainment demands a far more comprehensive effort to establish its universe and narrative economy. It’s understandable, then, that the people behind these worlds—writers, developers, and artists—would look out of place in the spotlight. A red carpet photo op from last year’s winner of Game of the Year, Larian Studios with Baldur’s Gate III, shows a mishmash of dress codes, with the game’s writers awkwardly front and center. It’s a spectacle, but a different kind of spectacle.
The rise of The Game Awards mirrors gaming’s cultural ascendance. Long relegated to the sidelines, today media conglomerates, tech firms, and advertisers have started paying more attention to interactive entertainment for its ability to draw a crowd. Over the past five years in particular, the category has managed to establish a foothold in the broader entertainment universe, with a myriad of non-endemic and adjacent firms like Disney investing heavily in immersive and online experiences. The destigmatization of video games as a popular activity during the pandemic broadened their appeal.
[Chart updated from original.]
The proof lies in an unexpected cultural marker: Hollywood A-listers and major musicians are increasingly clamoring for a spot on this stage. If you want to gauge an event’s relevance, just ask yourself, “Does it have Snoop Dogg in it?”
And for good reason. Measured by average audience per minute viewership for their respective primary annual award events, sports, film, and music show a clear decline over the past two decades. The Grammy’s, which peaked in 2012 with 39 million people watching the event, has since declined to 16.9 million, or less than half. Similarly, the Video Music Awards has dropped 67 percent to 4.1 million viewers, down from 12.5 million in 2011. And the Academy Awards show a 58 percent decline from when 46.3 million watched it in 2000 to 19.5 million today. Collectively, all awards ceremonies have declined to about half since The Game Awards first aired in 2014.
Major sports events still carry some weight, however. The Super Bowl reached a record 123.4 million viewers in 2024, up 7 percent year-over-year, and up 10 percent since 2014. Baseball’s biggest event, the World Series, drew 14.3 million viewers, up 57 percent year over year. Nevertheless, The Game Awards has outperformed all of them. From its first airing in 2014 when it attracted 1.9 million viewers, the 2024 edition drew 154 million people across all channels. That makes it the third year in a row that the event drew a bigger audience than the Super Bowl, and then some.
Gaming’s popularity also reflects on the broader entertainment market. For instance, the North American film industry is still very much in recovery since the pandemic. Audiences haven’t yet returned in the same numbers as before. Worse, competition from streaming platforms and the SAG-AFTRA strikes have contributed to a decline. This year’s box office is on track to reach $8.5 billion, down 4 percent from 2023.
Size, however, isn’t everything. What makes The Game Awards fascinating is its business model. Unlike traditional ceremonies that rely primarily on broadcast rights and advertising, The Game Awards has constructed a multi-sided platform model.
Game publishers use the event as a global stage to unveil new titles and drum up excitement. Digital storefronts like Steam and Epic Games capitalize on coordinated sales promotions tied to the show. Media outlets gain influence through their role on the voting jury. Viewers are entertained by exclusive trailers and reveals, while advertisers get access to a massive, engaged audience—one that has largely abandoned traditional channels. The show functions simultaneously as an awards ceremony, a major marketing event for upcoming titles, and a retail catalyst.
Of course, there are trade-offs. The show’s structure is a clever balancing act between cultural celebration and pure commercialism.
It is, for instance, no secret that much of The Game Awards consists of paid-for trailers, costing around $600,000 for a 2-minute video last year, interspersed with award announcements. In fact, we don’t get to see most of the trophies handed out. In 2022, only 12 of the total 32 awards were awarded on stage.
Moreover, criticism remains around the ceremony’s voting system. The Game Awards employs a sophisticated weighted approach that combines input from over 100 global media organizations (accounting for 90% of the final vote) with public fan voting (10%). The voting jury's broad composition—spanning traditional gaming press, mainstream media, and regional outlets across 33 countries—theoretically ensures a diverse perspective. Yet compared to the Academy Awards, which boasts 9,905 voting members, or the Grammys’ 13,000-plus participants, it’s a small pool.
It is perhaps the reason why an analysis of past winners reveals clear patterns favoring certain types of games: high-budget narrative experiences from major publishers that achieve Metacritic scores above 90. This voting architecture, overseen by an advisory committee that includes platform holders like Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo, effectively creates an institutional framework for cultural legitimation that tends to privilege traditionally "prestigious" forms of game design while potentially undervaluing innovation in other areas—such as multiplayer experiences, indie games, and alternative business models.
As the event attracts more advertiser dollars, the pressure to deliver grows. A 30-second Super Bowl ad costs $7 million, and while The Game Awards isn’t quite there yet, its continued success will hinge on transparency and control. I’ve heard grumbling from marketing teams who pay premium prices for trailer slots but lack control over their placements. If publishers are going to spend that kind of money, they’ll want guarantees. Balancing the needs of these stakeholders—especially those bankrolling the event—will only get more challenging.
At the center of it all is Geoff Keighley. It could be called the Keighley Awards IMHO. And deservedly so. But the close association between an individual and the broader interests of the industry and its audience means that eventually, Keighley will have to pass the baton.
Currently, The Game Awards represent more than just gaming’s rise to cultural prominence. It’s an innovative approach to traditional media models for the digital age. By aligning the interests of publishers, platforms, creators, and audiences, it has created a blueprint for how cultural events can thrive in an era of scarce attention and fierce competition. But the challenges ahead are substantial. Its ability to navigate the tensions between commercial imperatives and cultural credibility, scale and authenticity, and independence and influence will determine whether it remains a one-off success or a permanent fixture in entertainment’s evolving landscape.
For now, it stands as gaming's premier showcase. One that brings some visibility to the talent behind making helicopters fly right.
PLAY/PASS
Play. Tetris emerges as an unlikely but promising digital therapeutic tool, transforming a classic puzzle game into a novel treatment for trauma-related mental health conditions. And you’re only finding this out now?
Pass. As an enormous fan of low-brow entertainment, I’m happy to report that even I have standards. I will desist from Skibidi Toilet Mystery minifigs, now and forever.
UP NEXT
Judging by the rapidly declining number of emails, the United States is already on holiday. It’ll give me a chance to catch up on Astro Bot. I hear it’s good. 😉
I made a mistake comparing The Game Awards to the Super Bowl and the World Series. The reported 154 million viewer metric for The Game Awards represents total reach across platforms, which differs from the average audience for every minute of the Super Bowl and the average audience for the entire event for the World Series. It is a meaningless comparison, and I should have scrutinized it more closely before publishing.
The ‘apples to oranges’ comparison, while significant, does not materially impact the core analysis that The Game Awards offers an innovative platform strategy or its successful transformation of industry events into multi-sided markets connecting publishers, digital storefronts, and audiences. The fundamental thesis about business model innovation—particularly its ability to monetize attention through premium marketing inventory while maintaining platform independence—remains sound.
As such, I’ve removed the comparison from the original analysis and updated the visual. I want to thank the readers who contacted me and apologize for any confusion.
I’m happy we have The Game Awards, even if it’s not perfectly or 100% fairly executed. Beyond just the viewership, it gives the global industry another reason to come together in person and is immensely valuable for that reason alone. E3 was the same deal - it wasn’t executed perfectly, but it served a great purpose and was worth having.